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Info Service on WTO and Trade Issues (Dec24/08) New Delhi, 17 Dec (D. Ravi Kanth) — The World Trade Organization’s 14th ministerial conference (MC14) is expected to be held in Cameroon on 26-29 March 2026, amid the Trump administration’s second term beginning in January next year, as well as the lack of consensus on any of the core issues including concluding several proposed agreements, said people familiar with the development. The only example of consensus-based decision-making at the year-end General Council (GC) meeting on 16 December was on the improved notifications of farm export subsidies, said a developing country trade envoy, who asked not to be quoted. At the year-end GC meeting, proposals by Iceland on concluding a phase two agreement on fisheries subsidies, and incorporation of the controversial Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA) into Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement, as well as proposed reforms by the “Friends of the System” group which includes leading proponents Norway and Singapore on improving the appointment process for chairs of WTO bodies all seem to have collapsed like a proverbial “house of cards”, said a person who asked not to be quoted. However, there were alleged “theatrics” being displayed at the GC meeting where Barbados and many other countries were placing blue flags on their tables to indicate the failure to reach consensus on addressing subsidies contributing to overcapacity and overfishing (OCOF), said people familiar with the development. To top it all, Cameroon, the host of MC14, appears to have circulated a proposal for concluding an agreement on OCOF subsidies at the GC meeting, knowing full well that this is unlikely to happen in the current fractured state of the WTO where trust is completely lacking, said a trade envoy, who asked not to be quoted. DATES FOR MC14 A statement posted on the WTO’s website on 16 December said that: “Members agreed in December 2022 to a proposal from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Cameroon to host consecutive Ministerial Conferences. The UAE hosted the 13th Ministerial Conference from 26 February to 1 March 2024 in Abu Dhabi. MC14 will be the second Ministerial Conference to be hosted by an African country, following MC10 in Nairobi, Kenya in 2015. General Council Chair Ambassador Petter Olberg (Norway) said the final structure and programme of MC14 will be addressed in due course depending on progress made next year. Cameroon’s Ambassador Salomon Eheth thanked members for the confidence they have shown in Cameroon to host MC14. He said his country hopes to not only make a contribution to the development of the multilateral trading system but to seize the opportunity to show to the world the potential of Cameroon and Africa for investment and sustainable development. The Ministerial Conference, which is attended by trade ministers and other senior officials from the organization’s 166 members, is the highest decision-making body of the WTO.” With more than 15 months to go before MC14 in Cameroon, it is unclear how the unfinished second phase of the fisheries subsidies negotiations and the issue of agriculture will proceed, said several people who asked not to be quoted. The reform of the dispute settlement system may not include the restoration of the Appellate Body because of continued opposition from the United States. Even though a joint proposal by 130 members has continued to call for filling the seven vacancies on the Appellate Body on an expeditious basis, the US does not seem to be in any mood to restore the Appellate Body, said people familiar with the development. Moreover, the Director-General, Ms Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, while allegedly showing “irrational exuberance” on concluding an agreement on fisheries subsidies contributing to OCOF and on the IFDA, remains conspicuously silent on the Appellate Body issue, even suggesting that fresh disputes should not be brought to the WTO, said people who asked not to be quoted. However, in her address at a special General Council meeting on 28 November, she acknowledged: “The biggest, most challenging, and most publicized gap at the WTO is the hobbling of our dispute settlement function. As a unique asset – the so-called “crown jewel” of the organization – the dysfunction of the Appellate Body has created the most adverse of images for the WTO. The image of dysfunction is now so ingrained in the public psyche that it is difficult to convince anyone that the system actually functions at the panel level. We have spent a long time trying to persuade audiences of this.” The grim situation at the WTO seems to now reflect what has been captured by “The Second Coming,” a famous poem written by William Butler Yeats in 1919, said several analysts, who asked not to be quoted. According to an analyst familiar with current developments at the WTO, the first few lines of the poem reads: “Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, …” It appears that alleged attempts are likely to be made by the WTO’s leadership to accommodate each and every demand of the new Trump administration, but by doing so, the leadership of the WTO could further erode the trade body’s institutional structure, particularly its enforcement function by doing away with the Appellate Body, the highest adjudicating body for resolving global trade disputes at the WTO, said several people who asked not to be quoted. +
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