TWN Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Oct22/04)
17 October 2022
Third World Network

UN: Forty-five countries in need of external assistance for food, says FAO
Published in SUNS #9668 dated 17 October 2022

Geneva, 14 Oct (Kanaga Raja) -- Forty-five countries globally, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and the Caribbean and one in Europe, are in need of external assistance for food, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, FAO said that in East Africa, engendered by multi-season droughts, the food insecurity situation is grave and unless humanitarian assistance is scaled up, famine is expected in parts of Somalia.

"Globally, multi-year high inflation rates, amid challenging macroeconomic environments, are aggravating food insecurity conditions, particularly in low-income food-deficit countries," it added.

According to FAO, the 33 countries in Africa that are in need of external assistance for food are: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The nine countries in the Asia region that are in need of external assistance for food are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Lebanon, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen.

Haiti and Venezuela in the Latin America and Caribbean region are in need of external assistance for food, while in Europe, Ukraine is in need of external assistance for food.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

According to FAO, in the Africa region, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, issued in April 2022, the number of people in the Central African Republic in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above was estimated at 2.2 million between April and August 2022, mainly due to the impact of civil insecurity and high food prices.

It said as of 31 July 2022, about 648,000 people were internally displaced and over 735,000 refugees were hosted in neighbouring countries, mostly Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chad.

According to the FAO report, in Kenya, about 4.4 million people are projected to face severe acute food insecurity between October and December 2022, reflecting consecutive poor rainy seasons since late 2020 that affected crop and livestock production, mainly in northern and eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.

According to the latest Cadre Harmonise (CH) analysis, about 4.4 million people in Niger were estimated to need humanitarian food assistance between June and August 2022, reflecting worsening conflicts, a poor cereal output in 2021 and higher year-on-year prices of food, said FAO.

It said since the beginning of the rainy season that started in June, heavy rainfall has caused widespread flooding, affecting about 250,000 people across the country and aggravating food insecurity conditions.

An estimated 6.7 million people in Somalia are expected to face severe acute food insecurity between October and December 2022, including about 300,000 people facing IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of food insecurity, as a result of consecutive poor rainy seasons since late 2020, which severely affected crop and livestock production, and due to heightened conflict since early 2021, it added.

Famine is expected to occur in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region between October and December if humanitarian assistance is not urgently scaled up, FAO cautioned.

In Burundi, about 646,000 people are estimated to be facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis]) between June and September 2022.

FAO said the main drivers are poor rains in May in some central and southern eastern areas that affected pulses production, the lingering socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and high food prices due to elevated fuel prices inflating transportation costs.

According to the November 2021 IPC analysis, 26 million people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were projected to experience acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between January and June 2022.

FAO said that this is due to persisting conflict in eastern provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri, which continues to cause displacements, coupled with the lingering economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that elevated staple food prices pose a further risk to food insecurity.

As of 31 August 2022, over 1 million Congolese refugees were hosted in several neighbouring countries, including 446,000 in Uganda.

According to the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan, 20.4 million people in Ethiopia are officially estimated to be facing acute food insecurity, said the FAO report.

"In conflict-affected northern Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions, out of the total national figure, 13 million people are facing severe acute food insecurity due to the impact of the conflict on livelihoods."

FAO said according to the latest CH analysis, about 19.45 million people in Nigeria were estimated to be in need of humanitarian food assistance between June and August 2022, including 1.18 million in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), owing to the deterioration of security conditions and conflicts in northern states, localized shortfalls in staple food production, high food prices and reduced incomes.

"As of March 2022 (last data available), about 3.16 million people were estimated to be internally displaced in northern states."

As of September 2022, floods affected about 190,000 people in areas already impacted by high levels of food insecurity, malnutrition and violence in northeastern states, said FAO.

FAO said despite sustained humanitarian assistance, food insecurity still affects large segments of the population in South Sudan, driven by rampant food and non-food inflation, insufficient food supplies due to stagnant agricultural production, livelihood losses due to consecutive years with widespread floods and escalation of organized violence at the sub-national level since 2020.

About 7.74 million people, approximately 63 percent of the total population, were estimated to be facing acute food insecurity during the lean season between April and July 2022.

Based on a government assessment, FAO said an estimated 3.8 million people in Zimbabwe are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance between January and March 2023, with this number being higher than the level estimated in the first quarter of 2022.

"The downturn in food security conditions is largely on account of poor food access due to prevailing high food prices and reduced incomes owing to the effects of an economic downturn. A decline in cereal production in 2022 has also aggravated conditions."

FAO said that according to the March 2022 CH analysis, about 2.4 million people in Cameroon were projected to be acutely food insecure, CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, between June and August 2022, resulting from the effects of conflict, socio-political unrest and high food prices.

It said that according to the latest IPC analysis, an estimated 320,000 people in Lesotho are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between October 2022 and March 2023, a small improvement on the situation in early 2022.

It said food insecurity conditions are primarily underpinned by high food prices, while a slow economic recovery is further impinging on households' economic capacity to access food.

According to the latest CH analysis, about 1.84 million people in Mali were estimated to be in CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above between June and August 2022, including 156,000 in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), as a result of worsening conflicts, weather shocks, reduced cereal production in 2021 and high food prices, said FAO.

It said that as of July 2022, nearly 400,000 people were internally displaced, mostly in central and northern parts of the country. In addition, the country hosts approximately 56,000 refugees, mostly from the Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso.

In the Asia region, FAO said that the latest available nationwide food security assessment estimated that about 12 million people in the Syrian Arab Republic, 60 percent of the total population, were acutely food insecure in 2021, a slight decline from the 12.4 million in 2020, but 5 million more than at the end of 2019, mostly due to constrained livelihood opportunities and a rapidly worsening economy.

In September 2021, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia estimated that, taking into account multiple factors other than income, such as access to health, education and public utilities, 82 percent of the population in Lebanon lives in multi-dimensional poverty in 2021, up from 42 percent in 2019, it said.

In Sri Lanka, FAO said severe macroeconomic challenges have had a negative impact on the country's capacity to import cereals, while the 2022 cereal production declined sharply due to a reduced application of agrochemicals.

Elevated food prices are constraining economic access to food for a large number of households, it added.

"As a result, food and nutrition security has deteriorated since the beginning of 2022, with a significant proportion of vulnerable households adopting food and livelihood-related coping strategies."

In Yemen, FAO said the number of food insecure, IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, was projected to increase by over 1 million people to 17.4 million between January and May 2022, increasing to 19 million starting from June until the end of the year.

Of greatest concern is the 31,000 people facing IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), and this number is projected to rise to 161,000 from June onwards.

In Pakistan, FAO said that severe monsoon floods and landslides caused widespread destruction of crops, livestock assets, agricultural infrastructure, food reserves and disrupted the livelihoods of 33 million people.

According to the latest IPC analysis, about 4.7 million people, 25 percent of the population, were estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, between April and June 2022 in the 25 districts analysed in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

FAO said prices of wheat flour, the country's main staple, were at elevated levels in most markets in August 2022, constraining access to a key staple food.

In the Latin America and the Caribbean region, FAO said about 4.56 million people in Haiti were estimated to be facing severe acute food insecurity and in need of urgent food assistance between March and June 2022.

The high levels of food insecurity are the result of consecutive reduced cereal harvests between 2018 and 2021, and elevated food prices, exacerbated by socio-political turmoil and worsening insecurity, it added.

It said the lack of income-earning opportunities amid worsening insecurity and difficult macroeconomic conditions is likely to heighten food insecurity.

In the North America, Europe and Oceania region, FAO said according to the August update of the Ukraine Flash Appeal 2022, 17.7 million people in the country are estimated to be in urgent need of humanitarian assistance and protection due to the war, including about 6.6 million people who are internally displaced.

SITUATION OF LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES

The FAO said that its latest forecast for the aggregate 2022 cereal production of low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) stands at 184.4 million tonnes, moderately below the out-turn of 2021. "The expected result mostly reflects reduced production prospects in the LIFDCs of the East Africa and Near East Asia sub-regions."

In aggregate, the 2022 cereal production among LIFDCs in Africa is pegged at a slightly below-average level of 111.4 million tonnes.

The downturn is largely on account of the effects of multi-season drought conditions in East Africa, particularly affecting parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, said the FAO report. "The substantial rainfall deficits resulted in widespread crop wilting and the aggregate cereal production in East African LIFDCs is forecast to decrease by 3 percent in 2022 compared to the five-year average."

Unfavourable weather conditions have also led to a significant shortage of pasture and water resources, causing widespread animal deaths, said FAO.

In Asia, FAO said reduced cereal outputs are estimated in Near East countries, namely Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic. The low harvests are caused by an erratic distribution of seasonal rains and persisting difficult economic conditions that have constrained farmers' ability to access sufficient agricultural inputs, it added.

On the other hand, FAO said that in the Far East sub-region, a well-above-average cereal harvest is estimated in Bangladesh in 2022, underpinned by a large planted area.

It said in the remaining two LIFDCs of the sub-region, cereal harvests in Nepal and the Democratic Republic of Korea are pegged at below-average levels reflecting the impact of poor rainfall amounts and the low availability of agricultural inputs.

In Central America and the Caribbean, the 2022 cereal production in Haiti is forecast at a below-average level in 2022, largely owing to reduced plantings and poor yield prospects, as farmers continue to face access constraints with regard to purchasing agricultural inputs, said FAO.

It said that despite falling between June and August 2022, international cereal prices remained at elevated levels.

"Reflecting this situation and compounding domestic factors, most prominently currency depreciations, domestic retail prices of key cereal staple foods in several LIFDCs were at significantly higher year-on-year levels as of August 2022."

FAO said given an expected up-turn in import needs and in consideration of the high vulnerability of households in the LIFDCs to price upswings, as they spend on average a substantial share of income on food, these conditions are severely aggravating food insecurity.

In total, FAO said that the cereal import requirements for LIFDCs have been forecast at 65.5 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year, an increase of 8 percent compared to the five-year average.

It said that the bulk of the growth in import needs comes from sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in East Africa, where adverse weather conditions have curtailed domestic production prospects, and in West Africa, as countries seek to build up supplies following reduced outputs in 2021.

"Supply conditions are foreseen to be particularly tight in East African countries, where stocks are likely to have been drawn down in 2021/22 following the below-average aggregate production obtained in 2021."

FAO said that in Southern Africa, import needs have grown moderately compared to the five-year average, and as two years of bumper cereal out-turns have built up national stocks they are expected to limit import requirements in 2022/23, despite the lower harvest in 2022.

In Asian countries, FAO said that aggregate import needs in 2022/23 are forecast at 5 percent above the five-year average. Import requirements are forecast to rise steeply in Afghanistan and Nepal on account of reduced harvests in 2022, while elsewhere in the region, import requirements are at near-average levels, it added. +