TWN Info Service on UN Sustainable Development (Mar22/07)
14 March 2022
Third World Network

UN: Conflict, adverse weather & high food prices worsening food insecurity
Published in SUNS #9533 dated 14 March 2022

Geneva, 11 Mar (Kanaga Raja) - Forty-four countries globally are in need of external assistance for food, with conditions projected to worsen significantly for countries in West Africa, due to conflicts, high food prices and reduced harvests, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, FAO said the situation is alarming in East Africa, while humanitarian needs are foreseen to also increase in Southern Africa in late 2022 due to the impact of adverse weather.

In its report, FAO has assessed that globally 44 countries, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia and two in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food.

According to FAO, the 44 countries in need of external assistance for food are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Uganda, Tanzania, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The report also said that in Europe, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine raises serious concerns over the impact on the country's food security situation, especially in urban areas.

"The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is expected to result in increased humanitarian needs within the country and in bordering countries where displaced population seek refuge," said the FAO report.

It said the conflict has raised serious risk of livelihood failure and consequently the potential loss of incomes, with implications for households' economic access to staple foods.

In addition, disruptions to food markets may also lead to supply interruptions that would further weigh on food security conditions, said FAO.

Already, about 1.5 million people had been displaced, prior to the current escalation, as a result of the nearly eight- year conflict in eastern Ukraine, and some 1.1 million were in need of food and livelihood assistance and about 400,000 of them were estimated to be severely and moderately food insecure, it added.

"The prevalence and severity of food insecurity will likely rise, particularly the longer the conflict persists and the more the affected areas increase," FAO cautioned.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

According to FAO, in the African region, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number of severely food insecure people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above in the Central African Republic is estimated at 2.1 million between September 2021 and March 2022, mainly due to high levels of civil insecurity.

FAO said that in Kenya, about 3.1 million people were estimated to be severely food insecure in February 2022 reflecting consecutive poor rainy seasons since late 2020 that affected crop and livestock production, mainly in northern and eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.

FAO said according to the latest Cadre Harmonise (CH) analysis, about 2.58 million people in Niger were assessed to need humanitarian food assistance between October and December 2021 due to an increase in security incidents that disrupted agricultural and marketing activities, diminishing households' livelihood opportunities.

As of January 2022, an estimated 265,000 people have been displaced in Diffa, Tahoua and Tillabery regions of the country due to the civil conflict. Furthermore, the country hosts 250,000 refugees, mainly from Nigeria and Mali.

In addition, domestic cereal production was estimated at a below-average level in 2021, due to effects of adverse weather and the civil conflict, which is expected to further aggravate conditions.

As a result, between June and August 2022, 3.64 million people are projected to face severe food insecurity, said FAO.

An estimated 4.15 million people in Somalia are facing severe food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), between February and March 2022, mainly as a result of consecutive poor rainy seasons since late 2020, which severely affected crop and livestock production, and due to heightened conflict since early 2021.

FAO said that about 1 million people in Burundi are estimated to be severely food insecure between January and March 2022, due to livelihood losses and displacements caused by the rising water level of Lake Tanganyika and the overflow of rivers, sustained repatriation flows and the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It said that according to the latest CH analysis, about 965,000 people in Chad were estimated to be in CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, between October and December 2021 due to persisting insecurity in Lac and Tibesti regions that disrupted livelihood activities and caused population displacements.

About 410,000 people were displaced due to insecurity in the Lake Chad Region as of January 2022. Furthermore, 560,000 refugees mostly from the Central African Republic, Nigeria and the Sudan reside in the country due to conflicts and require humanitarian assistance, said the report.

Domestic cereal production was estimated at a below-average level in 2021 due to adverse weather and the civil conflict.

FAO said that as a result, between June and August 2022, 1.74 million people are projected to face severe food insecurity.

FAO said according to the November 2021 IPC analysis, 26 million people in the Democratic Republic of Congo are projected to be severely food insecure, IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, between January and June 2022.

It said this is due to persisting conflict in eastern provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri, which continues to cause displacements, coupled with the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Approximately 18 million people in Ethiopia are officially estimated to be food insecure. According to the 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan Mid-Year Review, without considering the conflict-affected Tigray region, about 12.8 million people are estimated to be in need of food assistance.

Out of this figure, 3.9 million people are estimated to be food insecure in the drought-affected Somali region.

In the Tigray region, according to the Revision of the 2021 Northern Ethiopia Response Plan, about 5.2 million people are facing severe food insecurity due to the impact of the conflict on livelihoods.

FAO said according to the latest CH analysis, about 12.9 million people in Nigeria were estimated to be in need of humanitarian food assistance between October and December 2021 owing to conflict in northern states, localized shortfalls in staple food production, high food prices and reduced incomes.

As of October 2021, over 3.2 million people were estimated to be internally displaced in northern states, it added.

Between June and August 2022, the number of food insecure is projected to increase to 18 million people, of which 620,000 are foreseen to face CH Phase 4 (Emergency) and 12,800 CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe).

FAO said despite sustained humanitarian assistance, food insecurity still affects large segments of the population in South Sudan, driven by insufficient food supplies, an economic downturn, high food prices and the lingering impact of widespread floods in 2020.

"About 7.2 million people, approximately 60 percent of the total population, were estimated to be severely food insecure between April and July 2021."

An estimated 3 million people in Zimbabwe are projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance between January and March 2022, largely on account of poor food access due to prevailing high food prices and reduced incomes owing to the effects of an economic downturn.

Below-average rainfall and extreme weather events in 2021/22 are likely to result in a decrease in cereal production and heighten food insecurity later in 2022, said FAO.

According to the October 2021 CH analysis, about 2.4 million people in Cameroon were estimated to be severely food insecure, CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, between October and December 2021. This is mainly the result of conflict, socio-political unrest and the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, said FAO.

According to the latest CH analysis, about 940,000 people in Liberia were estimated to be in CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above between June and August 2021 due to high food inflation rates and the negative effects of the COVID- 19 pandemic on the economy. The country is also hosting approximately 8,000 refugees that require assistance.

"Production of rice, a main staple food, was estimated at a below-average level in 2021, a factor that is expected to further aggravate food insecurity in 2022."

FAO said an estimated 1.64 million people in Madagascar are food insecure in southern regions and require urgent humanitarian assistance due to successive years of droughts.

Cyclones and tropical storms in early 2022 have affected a large number of people, particularly in eastern regions, and the number of food insecure people is expected to increase later in 2022.

Moreover, drought conditions continue to affect households in the south, which is likely to result in an increase in the severity and prevalence of food insecurity in these areas.

FAO said that an estimated 1.65 million people in Malawi are facing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of food insecurity between January and March 2022, underpinned by localized shortfalls in cereal production and the lingering impact of an economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, about 1.1 million people in Sierra Leone were estimated to be severely food insecure between October and December 2021 on account of high food prices and low purchasing power, resulting in acute constraints on households' economic access to food.

About 1.45 million people are projected to face severe food insecurity in the upcoming June to August 2022 period.

FAO said the number of severely food insecure people in Sudan was estimated at 6 million between October 2021 and February 2022, mainly due to high food prices and inter-communal conflict.

In the Asian region, FAO said that the latest available nationwide food security assessment estimated that about 12.4 million people, or 60 percent of the overall population, in the Syrian Arab Republic were food insecure in 2020, 5.4 million more than at the end of 2019, mostly due to constrained livelihood opportunities and a rapidly worsening economy.

A large portion of the population in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea suffers from low levels of food consumption and very poor dietary diversity, said the FAO report.

FAO said that persisting economic constraints, exacerbated by restrictive measures to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, have significantly reduced imports, including critical agricultural inputs and humanitarian goods, increasing the population's vulnerability to food insecurity.

FAO said the latest IPC analysis estimated that between November 2021 and March 2022, the number of people in Afghanistan in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) were at 22.8 million, up from 19 million in 2021 (September-October).

In Myanmar, the political crisis, following the military takeover on 1 February 2021, caused increased tensions and unrest throughout the country that resulted in new waves of population displacement.

FAO said according to the latest figures (January 2022) from UNHCR following the military takeover, the number of additional displaced people is estimated at 440,000, adding to the existing 370,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), as of December 2020.

According to FAO, Pakistan hosts close to 1.4 million registered refugees (as of June 2021). Most of the refugees are in need of humanitarian assistance and have added pressure on host communities' limited resources.

It said following the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, this number reportedly increased by an additional 120,000 people.

According to the latest IPC analysis, about 4.66 million people, or 25 percent of the population, in Pakistan are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, until at least April 2022 in 25 districts analysed in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

Prices of wheat flour, the country's main staple, were at high levels in most markets in January 2022, constraining access to the staple food, said FAO.

Meanwhile, in the Latin America and Caribbean region, FAO said that the total number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela is estimated at 6.04 million people, with the largest populations located in Colombia (1.84 million), Peru (1.29 million), Ecuador (509,000) and Chile (448,000).

The report said the humanitarian needs for refugees and migrants are significant. According to the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela, the number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants (in destination) in need of food assistance is estimated at 3.5 million in 2022.

About 4.56 million people in Haiti are estimated to be facing severe acute food insecurity and are in need of urgent food assistance between March and June 2022, said FAO.

The high levels of food insecurity are the result of consecutive reduced cereal harvests between 2018 and 2021, and elevated food prices, exacerbated by socio-political turmoil, it added.

Two natural disasters (a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and a tropical storm) that struck in August 2021, destroyed productive assets and infrastructure, and caused losses of stored food, further aggravating conditions.

The lack of income-earning opportunities amid worsening insecurity and difficult macroeconomic conditions is likely to heighten food insecurity, said FAO.

FOOD SITUATION IN LIFDCs

FAO said cereal production in the world's 47 Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is expected to decline by 5.2 percent in the 2021/2022 marketing season compared to 2020/2021, due to conflicts and extreme weather events.

Among the LIFDCs, harvesting of the 2022 cereal crops is expected to start from April in Southern Africa and Asia, while sowing operations of the 2022 crop are anticipated to start at a similar time in East Africa, Central Africa and West Africa.

FAO said its latest estimate for aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2021 is pegged at 186 million tonnes, about 2.1 million tonnes higher than the average.

The bulk of the increase relative to the average rests on large harvests in Bangladesh as well as Southern African countries, while production upturns in Ghana and Senegal also bolstered the overall aggregate output.

On the other hand, there were notably low cereal out-turns in the Sudan, the Niger, the Syrian Arab Republic and Afghanistan, due to a combination of poor weather conditions and the effects of conflicts on farming activities.

Meanwhile, FAO said the aggregate import requirement for LIFDCs in the 2021/22 marketing year are estimated at 66.6 million tonnes, 15 percent above the average of the previous five years.

It said high import needs in East African and West African countries are mostly underpinning the above-average aggregate import requirement, reflecting shortfalls in production in 2021.

FAO said increased imports of wheat in Bangladesh, a consequence of the high rates of food consumption, are also supporting the overall above-average import requirement.

In Southern African countries, the bumper harvests in 2021 cut import needs, most significantly in Zimbabwe, it added.