TWN Info Service on Sustainable Agriculture
16 April 2026
Third World Network

UN: Hormuz crisis could turn into global agrifood catastrophe, warns FAO
Published in SUNS #10423 dated 15 April 2026

Penang, 14 Apr (Kanaga Raja) -- Ships carrying essential agricultural inputs must resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz immediately to avoid a sharp rise in global food prices later this year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

FAO warned that prolonged disruptions could trigger inflationary pressures and supply chain shocks reminiscent of the post-COVID-19 period.

“The clock is ticking,” and crop calendars put poorer countries most at risk of scarce and pricey fertilizer and energy inputs, said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero in a podcast published by FAO on 13 April together with David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division.

Highlighting the magnitude of the potential impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Torero said that “we have 30 to 35% of crude oil which is not moving, 20% of natural gas which is used for nitrogen fertilizer, and between 20 to 30% of other fertilizers that are not moving out.”

He said it also means that 45 to 50% of sulfur, which is used to create phosphate fertilizer, is not moving out.

Since the ceasefire started, the expectation is that vessels will start to move, said Torero, adding: “We have an important pipeline of vessels that are not moving.”

Citing an example, he noted that at the end of March, the last vessel moving out of the Strait of Hormuz has arrived at its destination.

He cautioned that if these vessels don’t move out, the key inputs for the agrifood system and also for economic growth and the day-to-day operations of many sectors will be substantially impacted.

“So, our expectation is that vessels - let’s hope in the following days - will start to move, and let’s hope we don’t go backwards to a situation where the Strait is again closed.”

“The clock is ticking,” the Chief Economist said, explaining that everything that relates to the agrifood system is linked to the crop calendar.

“If we don’t follow the crop calendar, and we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed for planting ... that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs and therefore they could have lower yields and that will affect the next season, the next half of the year, or potentially the next year,” he pointed out.

“So, that is the level of urgency we have right now because the last thing we want is less yields for the next half of the year and for next year,” as well as higher food and commodity prices and higher food inflation.

Higher food inflation means higher overall inflation in the world and that means countries will have to put policies in place, like they did during COVID-19 after the recovery, to try to lower prices, he said, noting that interest rates will go higher and that will have an economic impact.

“So, its really important that these vessels start to move now,” Torero emphasized.

The latest FAO Food Price Index covered the month of March and was relatively stable thanks to ample supplies of most food commodities, especially cereals.

However, Torero noted that pressure is rising in April and will intensify in May as “farmers will make decisions” on whether to switch planting choices to adapt to fertilizer availability as well as whether to allocate more land and resources to biofuels to benefit from higher oil prices but curtailing global food supplies.

He said that is why it is essential that the ceasefire continues and that vessels in the Strait start to move so that agricultural inputs can flow and “we avoid this problem of food inflation in the future.”

Torero pointed out that energy, oil and diesel prices are central to all the countries that operate in the agrifood system, and these are needed for many parts of the whole value chain - from the farm to the market.

Furthermore, he said fertilizers are crucial - not only typical fertilizers like nitrogen, phosphorus and phosphates - but also the inputs to produce them like sulphur in the case of phosphates.

FAO urged all countries to closely ponder biofuel mandates and above all to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers.

Torero also warned that food inflation is a huge risk to the world. “If we have food inflation, that means we will have overall inflation in the world and that means that countries will have to react with policies that will restrict the monetary supply by increasing interest rates and that will mean that economies will grow slightly later.”

The Chief Economist stressed that this is not something abstract, but something that is real and that is why we need to ensure that vessels keep moving in the Strait.

Also speaking during the podcast, David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, underlined that the Strait of Hormuz is a key channel for oil and fertilizer, as well as to bring food to the Gulf countries.

“So, getting it open is critical,” he said, noting that in February a number of ships left the Strait and they have supplied the world during the month of March, but this is stopping now.

That is why today it has become critical that more traffic is seen in the Strait, he added.

“We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe,” said Laborde. “The difference depends on the actions we take.”

Highlighting some policy recommendations, Torero said in the short term, “we need to avoid export restrictions, especially now for fertilizer and energy and later maybe for commodities as well.”

According to the FAO, if the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is not quickly ended, anticipatory actions should be considered, in particular asking multilateral institutions to provide financing to countries at risk of losing access to basic fertilizer inputs given their planting has started.

In this regard, Torero said the International Monetary Fund’s balance of payment facilities, and the Food Shock Window, following the Food Import Financing Facility that FAO suggested in 2022, could be used as an input- financing facility allowing countries that need fertilizers today to get them quickly without triggering distorting subsidy competitions.

“Let’s avoid this perfect storm - be aware of those risks and putting the policies in place and doing the diplomatic solutions that are required to not create a food crisis when we don’t need to have a food crisis,” Torero said.