TWN Info Service on Sustainable Agriculture
28 July 2023
Third World Network

UN: High food prices driving hunger in 45 countries, says FAO
Published in SUNS #9831 dated 28 July 2023

Penang, 27 Jul (Kanaga Raja) — High food prices, armed conflict, economic downturns, and weather extremes including droughts and the impending risk of the El Nino phenomenon in several regions are aggravating food security concerns in many parts of the world, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has said.

In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, FAO assessed that globally 45 countries, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and Caribbean, and one in Europe, are in need of external assistance for food.

According to FAO, the 33 countries in Africa that are in need of external assistance for food are: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Lebanon, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen are in need of external assistance for food in the Asia region.

Haiti and Venezuela in the Latin America and Caribbean region are in need of external assistance for food, while in Europe, Ukraine is in need of external assistance for food.

FAO said high domestic food prices are a driver of worrying levels of hunger in most of these 45 countries.

“Although drought conditions eased in East Africa, production prospects remain unfavourable in 2023, while conflicts in several parts of the African continent are aggravating food security concerns.”

At the global level, FAO said that El Nino poses a risk to agricultural production and food security in several regions, particularly Southern Africa and Central America.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

According to FAO, in the Africa region, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number of severely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) in the Central African Republic was projected to reach 2.4 million between April and August 2023, including about 622,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

The situation reflects the impact of the conflict and civil insecurity, as well as the effects of flooding and drought conditions that curbed crop yields and agricultural production, it said, adding that as of February 2023, 483,000 people were internally displaced as a result of armed violence.

FAO said that according to the latest estimates, about 5.4 million people in Kenya were acutely food insecure between March and June 2023, reflecting the lingering impact of a prolonged and severe drought between late 2020 and early 2023 that affected crop and livestock production, mainly in northern and eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.

According to the latest estimates, about 1.2 million people in Burundi are estimated to be facing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between June and September 2023, unchanged year-on-year but notably with no populations in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), unlike 2022, it added.

The main drivers are the lingering impact of floods in northern areas in late 2022 and high food prices due, in part, to the depreciation of the national currency, said the report.

According to the latest Cadre Harmonise (CH) analysis, the report said about 1.86 million people in Chad are projected to experience acute food insecurity during the June to August 2023 lean season period, including nearly 107,000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), an improvement compared to the previous year, mostly due to the higher year-on-year cereal output in 2022 after the below-average 2021 production.

“Acute food insecurity is underpinned by persisting insecurity in Lac and Tibesti regions, which had displaced over 380,000 people by April 2023.”

Furthermore, elevated food prices due to high fuel costs and localized crop losses during the 2022 floods are aggravating food insecurity, it added.

The report said that as of mid-June 2023, over 715,000 refugees were residing in the country. In particular, the ongoing conflict in the Sudan led about 90,000 people to flee to the country since mid-April 2023, a number that is expected to increase further.

According to the October 2022 IPC analysis, 25.8 million people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were projected to experience acute food insecurity between January and June 2023, said FAO.

It said this is due to the intensification of the conflict in northeastern provinces, which, among other factors, has prevented the completion of the harvests and will likely reduce food availability in the months to come.

The report said that about 250,000 people in Djibouti were estimated to have faced acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between March and June 2023, mainly due to the lingering impact of a prolonged and severe drought between late 2020 and early 2023, and high food prices.

An estimated 3.82 million people in Malawi faced acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis]) between October 2022 and March 2023, more than double the estimate for the January to March 2022 period, it added.

“The impact of Cyclone Freddy in southern districts, including crop losses and destruction of infrastructure as well as high food prices, are expected to aggravate food insecurity conditions in 2023.”

According to the latest CH analysis, the report said that over 472,000 people in Mauritania are projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the June to August 2023 lean season, including about 28,000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency).

FAO said this would be an improvement compared to the previous year, mostly due to a substantial increase in cereal production in 2022.

However, it said that high food prices, in particular of imported wheat, continue to worsen acute food security.

About 24.86 million people in Nigeria are projected to face acute food insecurity during the June to August 2023 lean season, including about 1.14 million people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), which is above the 19.45 million people estimated to be acutely food insecure in 2022, said the report.

“Acute food insecurity is mostly the result of worsening insecurity and conflicts in northern states, which, as well as impeding farmers’ physical access to their lands and disrupting agricultural activities, led to the displacement of about 3.57 million people as of April 2023.”

Macroeconomic challenges, marked by persistent high inflation, depreciation of the naira on the parallel market, high fuel prices and the lingering impacts of cash shortages following the introduction of new banknotes at the start of 2023, have aggravated the food security conditions of vulnerable households, said the report.

It said despite sustained humanitarian assistance, food insecurity still affects large segments of the population in South Sudan, owing to rampant inflation and insufficient food supplies, due to a stagnant agricultural production, impact of consecutive years with widespread floods and the escalation of organized violence at the sub-national level since 2020.

FAO said about 7.76 million people, almost two-thirds of the total population, are expected to face severe acute food insecurity in the lean season between April and July 2023.

Based on a government assessment, an estimated 3.8 million people in Zimbabwe were in need of humanitarian assistance between January and March 2023, with this number being higher than the level estimated in the first quarter of 2022, it added.

“The downturn in food security conditions is largely on account of poor food access, due to prevailing high food prices and reduced incomes owing to the effects of an economic downturn.”

FAO said according to the March 2023 CH analysis, about 2.4 million people in Cameroon are estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), between March and August 2023, as a result of conflict, socio-political unrest and high food prices, as well as floods that caused population displacements and damaged standing crops.

Meanwhile, it said that the latest IPC analysis indicates that nearly 259,000 people in Eswatini faced acute food insecurity between January and March 2023, an improvement compared to the previous year.

FAO said food insecurity in 2022/23 is driven by high food prices and a slowdown in economic growth, curbing households’ income-earning opportunities.

According to the latest IPC analysis, an estimated 320,000 people in Lesotho were projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between October 2022 and March 2023, a small improvement compared to early 2022, it added.

“Food insecurity conditions are primarily underpinned by high food prices and a slow economic recovery that is impinging on households’ economic capacity to access food.”

Over 531,000 people in Liberia are projected to be acutely food insecure during the June to August 2023 lean season period, including approximately 21,500 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), said the report.

FAO said acute food insecurity is associated with high food prices due to high international commodity prices and elevated transport costs.

According to the latest CH analysis, about 1.26 million people in Mali are projected to face acute food insecurity during the June to August 2023 lean season period, it added.

FAO said this figure includes nearly 76,250 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency) and over 2,500 in CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe), the first time that a segment of the population has been assessed to face CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of food insecurity.

Food insecurity conditions are primarily underpinned by the impact of the conflict in central and northern areas, which has caused the displacement of over 375,000 people, as of April 2023, it added.

“Persistent high food prices affect vulnerable households across the country, but limit, in particular, the food access of people in conflict-affected areas due to market disruptions and limited access to sources of income and humanitarian assistance.”

The report said an estimated 390,000 people in Namibia faced acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) in the January to March 2023 period, lower than the figure in the corresponding period of 2022.

High food prices and localized weather-induced shortfalls in cereal production in 2022 were the key drivers, it added.

According to the latest CH analysis, about 1.18 million people in Sierra Leone are projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance between the June to August 2023 lean season, including nearly 34,500 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency), said the report.

Acute food insecurity is underpinned by elevated food prices, in part driven by a weak national currency, and low purchasing power of vulnerable households, it added.

About 19.9 million people in Sudan are currently expected to require emergency food and livelihood assistance, due to the conflict that broke out in mid-April 2023 which severely damaged livelihoods, paralyzed economic activities, triggered a surge in the already high food prices and caused large-scale displacements, with about 1.67 million people displaced inside of the country and about 528,000 people having fled to neighbouring countries, it further said.

According to the latest IPC analysis, an estimated 990,000 people in Tanzania were facing severe acute food insecurity between March and May 2023, 839,000 people in 28 mainland districts and 151,000 in Zanzibar Island, said FAO, adding that the main drivers are reduced domestic crop production and high food prices.

An estimated 1.95 million people in Zambia were projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October 2022 and March 2023, an increase compared to the 1.6 million people estimated in 2021/22, said the report.

“The high level of acute food insecurity is associated with the effects of a below-average cereal harvest and high food prices that adversely impacted households’ food availability and access.”

Meanwhile, in the Asia region, FAO said that the food security situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is expected to remain fragile, given persisting economic constraints aggravated by a below average 2022 agricultural output.

According to the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, in Lebanon, about 1.29 million Lebanese residents (33 percent of the resident population) and 0.7 million Syrian refugees (46 percent of the total number of Syrian refugees in the country) were estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above between September and December 2022, it added.

FAO said this number increased to 1.46 million Lebanese residents (38 percent of the resident population) and 0.80 million Syrian refugees (53 percent of the total number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon) between January and April 2023.

In Sri Lanka, the 2023 cereal production is forecast below the five-year average, mostly reflecting constraints on farmers’ access to agricultural inputs. Elevated prices of key food items are also constraining economic access to food for a large number of households, it added.

Nearly 17 million people or over 53 percent of the population in Yemen were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse between October and December 2022, said the report.

“Of primary concern are the 6.1 million people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and the 4.3 million people who are internally displaced as a result of the conflict.”

Food insecurity is expected to remain fragile in Bangladesh, given persisting economic constraints. Domestic prices of wheat flour and palm oil, important food items, were at high levels in May 2023, said FAO.

The protracted political crisis in Myanmar is compromising the fragile conditions of vulnerable households and the Rohingya IDPs (internally displaced persons), it added.

According to the latest figures (May 2023) from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of IDPs is estimated at about 1.83 million.

FAO said domestic prices of “Emata” rice, the most consumed variety in the country, were at record levels as of May 2023, constraining access to a key staple food.

According to the latest IPC analysis, FAO said the number of people in Pakistan facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and October 2023 is estimated at 10.5 million, due to the devastating flood impacts in 2022.

This number is larger than the projection made in 2022, mainly reflecting an expanded geographical coverage of the IPC analysis, it added.

FAO said the prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple, were at elevated levels in most markets in January 2023, constraining access to a key staple food.

Meanwhile, in the Latin America and the Caribbean region, FAO said that about 4.9 million people in Haiti are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity and were in need of urgent food assistance between March and June 2023.

“The high levels of food insecurity are the result of a sustained economic downturn, reducing domestic food production, elevated food prices, fuel shortage and frequent natural disasters.”

The situation is exacerbated by worsening insecurity, which has limited access to essential services, including markets, caused population displacements and hampered delivery of humanitarian assistance, it added.

Highlighting the economic crisis in Venezuela, FAO said that the total number of refugees and migrants from the country is estimated at 7.3 million, with the largest populations located in Colombia (2.48 million), Peru (1.52 million), Ecuador (502,200), Brazil (449,700) and Chile (444,400).

The remaining 0.7 million people are spread across other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, with about 1 million people located outside the region, it added.

Despite a resumption of economic growth since 2021, outflows of refugees and migrants have continued in the first five months of 2023, the report noted.

High food inflation rates across host countries as well as limited income earning opportunities are limiting access to food of Venezuelan refugees and migrants, and thus humanitarian needs are significant, it said.

According to the Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan 2023-2024, the number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants (in-destination) in need of food assistance is projected at 3.62 million in 2023, slightly up from 3.57 million in 2022, it added.

In Europe, FAO said Ukraine continues to be a significant supplier of food commodities for the world. However, according to the 2023 Humanitarian Needs Overview, at least 17.6 million people are estimated to be in need of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance in 2023 due to the war, including over 11 million in need of food security and livelihood interventions.

FOOD SITUATION IN LIFDCs

FAO said while world cereal production is forecast to expand by 1.1 percent in 2023 from the year before, it is predicted to contract in the group of 44 Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), pushing up import needs.

FAO’s forecast for aggregate cereal production of LIFDCs in 2023 stands at 138.2 million tonnes, marginally down from the five-year average and on par with the out-turn in 2022.

Among LIFDCs in Africa, total cereal production in 2023 is forecast at a slightly below-average level of 106.1 million tonnes, it said.

The production downturn is mostly related to LIFDCs in East Africa, where an erratic distribution of rainfall has curbed harvest expectations in Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania, it added.

“In the Sudan, in addition to unfavourable rains, soaring prices and shortages of key inputs due to the ongoing conflict have significantly constrained plantings, further weighing on production prospects.”

FAO said in the coastal LIFDCs of West Africa, the main harvest period started in July and, based on average to above-average cumulative rainfall amounts, cereal production is forecast above the five-year average in 2023. With the main season harvest completed by July, production among the LIFDCs in Southern Africa is pegged at an above average level. However, cyclones and consequent flooding caused localised crop losses and damages in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi, it added.

In Asia, FAO said aggregate cereal production in 2023 among LIFDCs is pegged at a slightly above-average level of 31 million tonnes.

“In Near East Asian countries, an erratic temporal distribution of rainfall and low cumulative amounts resulted in a below average cereal output in Afghanistan.”

In the Syrian Arab Republic, near-average rainfall amounts since March helped crops to recover from earlier dry weather conditions and total cereal production is forecast at an above-average level in 2023.

FAO said that in Central America, production in 2023 is expected at a below-average level in Haiti, due to constrained availability of agricultural inputs and below-average rainfall amounts between March and May, which are foreseen to result in both low plantings and yields.

Meanwhile, FAO said that the total cereal import requirement for LIFDCs is forecast at 51 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year, 10 percent above the five-year average.

It said the growth mostly reflects below-average production prospects in East African countries in 2023, which follows two years of drought and an expected draw-down in stocks, necessitating the need to increase imports to bolster domestic supplies.

Moderate increases in imports are forecast in West African countries, especially in several Sahel countries where conflicts are eroding local agricultural productive capacity, it added.

“While international prices have declined since mid-2022, currency weakness in several LIFDCs is limiting the transmission to domestic markets, contributing to the still high food inflation rates,” said FAO.

“Given the high proportion of income that households in LIFDCs allocate to food purchases, the high inflation rates represent a significant burden on food access for the most vulnerable people and are aggravating their food insecurity levels,” it added. +