TWN Info Service on Sustainable Agriculture
21 April 2022
Third World Network

UN: Drought could worsen hunger in Horn of Africa region, says WFP
Published in SUNS #9559 dated 21 April 2022

Geneva, 20 Apr (Kanaga Raja) -  Severe drought in the Horn of Africa region could result in the number of hungry people spiraling from the currently estimated 14 million to 20 million through 2022, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

The WFP said desperately needed rains across the Horn of Africa region have so far failed to materialize, almost a month into the current rainy season.

With Somalia facing the risk of famine, half a million Kenyans one step away from catastrophic levels of hunger, and malnutrition rates in Ethiopia well above emergency thresholds, "time is fast running out for families who are struggling to survive," said WFP.

According to WFP, in Ethiopia, crops have failed, over a million livestock have died and an estimated 7.2 million people wake up hungry every day in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, as the country grapples with the most severe drought since 1981.

WFP said that it urgently requires US$239 million over the next six months to respond to the drought in southern Ethiopia.

WFP said in Kenya, the number of people in need of assistance has risen more than fourfold in less than two years.

According to the Short Rains Assessment, the rapidly escalating drought has left 3.1 million people acutely food insecure, including half a million Kenyans who are facing emergency levels of hunger, it added.

WFP said that it urgently requires US$42 million over the next six months to meet the needs of the most critically affected communities in northern and eastern parts of the country.

WFP said in Somalia, some 6 million people are facing acute food insecurity and, alarmingly, there is a very real risk of famine in the coming months if the rains don't arrive and humanitarian assistance isn't received.

WFP said it is scaling up emergency food and nutrition assistance to support 3 million people by the middle of this year, but a US$192 million relief funding gap over the next six months means that it has less than half of what it needs to keep scaling up.

"We know from past experience that acting early to avert a humanitarian catastrophe is vital, yet our ability to launch the response has been limited due to a lack of funding to date," said Mr Michael Dunford, WFP's Regional Director for Eastern Africa.

The WFP and other humanitarian agencies have been warning the international community since last year that this drought could be disastrous if we didn't act immediately, but funding has failed to materialise at the scale required, he added.

According to WFP, the situation has been compounded by the fallout of conflict in Ukraine, with the cost of food and fuel soaring to unprecedented highs.

It said that the drought-affected countries across the Horn of Africa are likely to be the hardest hit by impacts of the conflict - the cost of a food basket has already risen, particularly in Ethiopia (66 percent) and Somalia (36 percent), which depend heavily on wheat from Black Sea basin countries, and the disruption in imports further threatens food security.

Shipping costs on some routes have doubled since January 2022, WFP added.

Speaking at a hybrid media briefing on Tuesday, Mr Dunford, the Regional Director for WFP in Eastern Africa, said "we are facing a severe drought presently across three countries - Somalia, Kenya and Southern Ethiopia."

It is estimated that over a million head of livestock in Ethiopia have perished, with 7.2 million people requiring assistance, mainly in the southern region, he added.

In Kenya, there has been a four-fold increase in the number of people impacted, and potentially up to another million head of livestock lost, he further said.

In Somalia, it is now estimated that there are over 6 million people, or 38% of the population, in Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) 3 and above (facing acute food insecurity), 1.7 million who are in IPC 4 (facing emergency levels of hunger), and "unfortunately, we are already seeing pockets of the population in Catastrophic (or IPC 5) conditions," said Mr Dunford.

"So, we have a very real risk of famine in Somalia," he cautioned.

Mr Dunford also said that Ukraine is having a negative impact across the Horn of Africa region, adding that the cost of WFP's operations have increased by 23%. For example, the cost of a food basket in Ethiopia has increased by 66%.

Speaking from Addis Ababa, Dr. Chimimba David Phiri, FAO Sub-regional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, said that "we have had three consecutive seasons of below-average rains and unfortunately, rainfall during the period mid-March to mid-April this year has been well below average as well."

The forecast for the remainder of the season does not look favourable, he added.

He said the Regional Food Security and Nutrition Working Group estimates that between 15 and 16 million people are highly food insecure in the region through May 2022 just because of the drought.

He said this means that for cropping households, they have experienced three seasons of below-average harvests and below-average household food stocks.

"For pastoral households, this has meant three seasons of below-average range-land conditions and limited milk access for children."

"We estimate for both southern Ethiopia and the arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya that more than 3 million livestock have died across the two areas (over 1.5 million in each country)," said Dr David Phiri.

In Somalia, up to 30 percent of households' herd have died since mid-2021, he added.

Furthermore, he said "beyond the drought, many of the areas that we are concerned about have been plagued with conflict and insecurity, as well as macroeconomic challenges and rising food prices and recently by Desert Locust."

In a worst-case scenario where rains completely fail and there is no humanitarian assistance, it is possible that some households would face Catastrophe (IPC 5), Dr David Phiri added.

According to Dr David Phiri, FAO launched a drought response plan on 17 January 2022 for Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, asking for US$130 million to assist 1.5 million people.

"To date, FAO received around US$50 million (38% of our needs only). This is insufficient to save livelihoods to scale and therefore to save lives," he said.

Furthermore, and with a fourth on-going below-average rainfall, needs across the region are growing and FAO, like WFP, is preparing a revised appeal that will be released early May, he added.

"We are very concerned as well by the potential cumulative effect of the drought and the Ukraine crisis that will further impact food security due to high prices, potential lower than normal supply of cereals and fertilizers from the Black Sea region during the second half of the year," said Dr David Phiri.

"We believe that the Ukraine crisis has indeed taken some of the lustre from the needs of the Horn of Africa region," he added.

"We believe it is important for the world that while they are considering the needs of Ukraine, that they also consider the needs for the Horn of Africa," said Dr David Phiri.

"We must act now on a no-regret basis if we want to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and we must significantly scale up our investments on resilient food systems," he added.