THIRD WORLD NETWORK INFORMATION SERVICE ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

United Nations: COVID-19 heightening existing levels of food insecurity
Published in SUNS #9385 dated 12 July 2021

Geneva, 9 Jul (Kanaga Raja) – The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in terms of income losses, have exacerbated vulnerabilities and heightened existing levels of food insecurity, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has said.

In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, FAO has assessed that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, nine in Asia and two in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food, with conflicts and climate-related shocks continuing to underpin the high levels of severe food insecurity.

According to FAO, the 45 countries in need of external assistance for food are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

SOME REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

According to FAO, in Africa, about 2 million people in Kenya were estimated to be severely food insecure in the March-May 2021 period, reflecting the poor performance of both the October-December 2020 “short-rains” and the March-May 2021 “long-rains” that affected crop and livestock production in northern and eastern pastoral, agro-pastoral and marginal agriculture areas.

In Burundi, which is being affected by weather extremes, about 1 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure in the June-September 2021 period, mainly due to livelihood losses caused by poor rains in northern areas and by floods in western areas bordering Lake Tanganyika.

“The socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has put further constraints on livelihoods of vulnerable households,” said FAO.

Meanwhile, in Djibouti, about 194,000 people are estimated to be severely food insecure in the January-August 2021 period, mainly due to livelihood losses caused by floods and landslides, and as a result of the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of vulnerable households.

According to FAO, Ethiopia has been affected by high food prices, floods, desert locust infestations, and conflict in the Tigray region.

It said that more than 16 million people in the country were estimated to be severely food insecure in the May-June 2021 period.

Particular concerns exist for the Tigray region and neighbouring zones of Amhara and Afar regions, where 5.5 million people (about 60 percent of the population) are estimated to face severe food insecurity, including 350,000 people in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 5 “Catastrophe”, due to the conflict which started in November 2020.

In Zimbabwe, which is being affected by high food prices and an economic downturn, a well above-average cereal production in 2021 has resulted in an improvement in food security.

However, an estimated 1.8 million people are still assessed to be food insecure in the July-September period, about half the level in the previous year, largely on account of poor food access due to prevailing high food prices and reduced incomes owing to the effects of the economic downturn, said FAO.

In Zambia, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have aggravated food insecurity across the country, particularly due to income reductions that have constrained households’ economic access to food.

However, cereal production is estimated at a bumper high in 2021 and, as a result, overall food security is expected to improve compared to the previous year, said FAO.

According to FAO, in the Asian region, in August 2020, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia estimated that more than 55 percent of the population in Lebanon live in poverty, up from 28 percent in 2019.

Current figures are likely to be higher due to a fall in households’ purchasing power, said FAO.

In the Syrian Arab Republic, which is being affected by civil conflict as well as an economic crisis, a nationwide food security assessment estimated that about 12.4 million people (60 percent of the overall population) are food insecure in 2021, 5.4 million more than at the end of 2019, mostly due to constrained livelihood opportunities and rapidly worsening economy.

In Bangladesh, which is facing economic constraints and an influx of refugees, food insecurity and poverty levels have increased due to income losses caused by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the latest figures from UNHCR, about 880,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar were sheltering in Bangladesh, mainly in Cox’s Bazar District.

In Myanmar, the political crisis, following the military takeover on 1 February 2021, resulted in increased tensions and unrest throughout the country, said FAO.

The current uncertain political situation may further compromise the fragile situation of vulnerable households and the Rohingya internally displaced persons (IDPs) residing in the country, it added.

“Income losses due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has affected the food security situation of vulnerable households.”

Meanwhile, in Pakistan, poverty levels have increased due to losses of income-generating opportunities due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.

The country hosts close to 1.4 million registered and approximately 0.6 million unregistered Afghan refugees.

Most of these people are in need of humanitarian assistance and are straining the already limited resources of the host communities.

Prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple, were at high levels in most markets in May 2021, constraining access to food, said FAO.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the total number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela is estimated at 5.6 million, with the largest populations located in Colombia (1.7 million), Peru (1 million) and Chile (457,000), said FAO.

It said that the humanitarian needs for refugees and migrants are significant, with the food insecurity situations of migrants reportedly worsening in 2020 due to losses of income-generating opportunities in the host countries amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The expected slow recovery of the host countries’ economies is likely to only marginally restore the livelihoods of migrants, FAO added.

According to the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela, the number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants (including in-transit and temporary) in need of food assistance is estimated at 3.26 million in 2021.

Meanwhile, in Haiti, which is being affected by reduced agricultural production and socio-political turmoil, about 4.4 million people are estimated to be facing severe acute food insecurity and are in need of urgent food assistance in the March-June 2021 period.

The high levels of food insecurity are the result of reduced cereal outputs in 2018-2020 and elevated food prices following the weakening of the currency.

Income losses amid the COVID-19 pandemic and socio-political turmoil have exacerbated the already poor food security situation, said FAO.

SITUATION OF LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES

According to FAO, cereal production of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is forecast to remain above average in 2021, despite year-on-year output declines in Asian countries.

FAO said its latest forecast for aggregate cereal production of the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), following the graduation of four countries out of the list in 2021, is pegged at an above-average level of 189.7 million tonnes in 2021.

At this level, the aggregate output would be 4.1 million tonnes below the previous year’s level, it added.

It said the yearly decline mostly relates to lower expected outputs in Asian countries, principally Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic, where prolonged and widespread periods of rainfall deficits have curbed yield potentials and consequently the 2021 cereal harvests are forecast at below-average levels.

Scarce precipitation amounts have also adversely affected crops in Uzbekistan and the harvest is also foreseen at a moderately below-average level.

Other countries in the Asian region are expected to gather slightly above-average harvests in 2021, said FAO.

In Africa, aggregate cereal production among the LIFDCs is forecast to remain at an above-average level in 2021, but lower than the bumper output of the previous year.

Significant production increases are estimated in Southern African countries, particularly in Zimbabwe, where the cereal harvest is more than double the average, owing to almost ideal seasonal weather conditions, said FAO.

In East Africa, where the 2021 main season harvest will take place later in the year, early production prospects point to near-average cereal outputs.

“Poor rains during the minor season, with crops about to be harvested, caused low yields, especially in Somalia where the output is foreseen to be 20-40 percent below the average.”

However, favourable rainfall is forecast for the main cropping season across the sub-region, auguring well for yield prospects and supporting the expectations of near-average aggregate outputs in 2021, said FAO.

In West Africa, cereal production in 2021 is expected to exceed the average despite predictions of unfavourable weather conditions in coastal countries and the continued impact of conflicts.

Cereal production in Central Africa is foreseen at an average level, as conflicts continue to undermine agricultural productive capacities.

In Central America and the Caribbean, low plantings in Haiti, owing to prohibitively high costs and low supply of agricultural inputs, underpin expectations of a below-average cereal output in 2021, said FAO.

In Nicaragua, production is forecast at a slightly above-average level as recent conducive rainfall is offsetting the effects of poor weather conditions earlier in the season.

The aggregate cereal import requirements by LIFDCs in the 2021/22 marketing year are forecast at 60.1 million tonnes, 7.5 percent above the five-year average and up 3 percent on a yearly basis, said FAO.

The bulk of the increase relates to Asian countries, notably Afghanistan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Uzbekistan, where significant production declines are expected.

In West Africa, import requirements are also expected to increase, underpinned by mixed production prospects on account of the effects of conflicts and unfavourable seasonal weather forecasts.

In contrast, in Southern Africa, import needs are significantly lower in 2021/22, reflecting the bumper domestic harvests, said FAO.

SOME REGIONAL REVIEWS

Highlighting some further regional trends, FAO said that in North Africa, despite the strengthening of international food prices since May 2020, year-on-year food inflation rates during the first part of 2021 remained at low levels.

It said prices of basic food commodities remain subsidized by the governments across the sub-region, buffering the transmission of any eventual price changes to final consumers.

In Tunisia, the annual food inflation rate was the highest in the sub-region, increasing from 4.9 percent in April 2021 to 6 percent in May 2021, while in Algeria, food prices increased by 3.4 percent year-on-year in January 2021, compared to a rate of 1.3 percent in October 2020.

FAO said that in Central Africa, in the second quarter of 2021, the aggregate number of severely food insecure people is estimated at 32.2 million.

“Ongoing conflicts and displacements have continued to result in the widespread disruption of agricultural and marketing activities, severely affecting food availability and access.”

In addition, the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic resulted in income losses and, coupled with the high level of prices, substantially reduced households’ purchasing power, said FAO.

In East Africa, the aggregate number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is estimated at more than 42 million individuals, mainly located in Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Sudan.

This number is more than 50 percent higher on a yearly basis and well above the high levels of food insecurity recorded during the 2016 and 2017 droughts, said FAO.

For the Far East sub-region of Asia as a whole, cereal import requirements in 2021/22 are forecast at 170 million tonnes (rice in milled terms), close to the previous year’s record level and about 20 percent above the five-year average.

FAO said the high level mainly reflects the strong demand for feed crops, especially in China (mainland) where pork production continues to recover following the outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2018 and 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the food security situation of a large number of people in the sub-region, especially due to income losses, including a reduction of remittances, associated with the containment measures, it added.

For example, in Nepal, according to UNICEF, the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected child poverty – the estimated number of children living in poverty increased to 7 million in August 2020, compared to 1.3 million poor children before the pandemic.

FAO said severe food insecurity conditions persist among the large communities of refugees hosted in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, the food security situation of about 860,000 Rohingya refugees and the host communities have severely deteriorated in 2021 compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, economic constraints, resulting from the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, have increased the population’s vulnerability to food insecurity, with a large portion of the population already suffering from low levels of food consumption and very poor dietary diversity prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Food insecurity has worsened in Central America and the Caribbean due to income and livelihood losses amid the COVID-19 pandemic, said FAO.

In the sub-region, according to the latest IPC analyses, the number of food insecure people who require urgent humanitarian assistance until at least August is estimated at 3.5 million in Guatemala, 3.3 million in Honduras and 1 million in El Salvador, whilst in Haiti, about 4.4 million people were estimated to be food insecure in the March- June 2021 period.

“The economic downturn, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and resultant losses of jobs, incomes and remittances exacerbated the previous levels of food insecurity across the sub-region,” said FAO.