TWN Info Service on WTO and Trade Issues (Apr22/09)
14 April 2022
Third World Network

MC12 a stocktaking meeting or with any meaningful deliverables?
Published in SUNS #9556 dated 14 April 2022

Geneva, 13 Apr (D. Ravi Kanth) – As the WTO director-general and two of her deputies are scheduled to visit Washington DC next week, there seems to be growing concerns whether the WTO’s 12th ministerial conference (MC12) will be merely a stocktaking meeting or whether it will deliver any meaningful outcomes, said people familiar with the development.

MC12 is tentatively scheduled to be held on 12-15 June in Geneva. The prospects for MC12, which remain uncertain because of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the likely exclusion of Russia from small-group meetings at the WTO, seem to be changing almost on a daily basis.

There is now increasing talk among WTO members that MC12 may come to resemble the eighth ministerial conference (MC8), a stocktaking meeting that took place in Geneva in December 2011 without any deliverables, said people, who asked not to be identified.

Perhaps, the DG and her deputies may seek guidance from the US Trade Representative (USTR) Ambassador Katherine Tai, on how to proceed with MC12 given the uncertainties around Russia’s participation as well as Washington’s demands, said people, who asked not to be quoted.

Prior to the public comments made by the DG, Ms Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, at a hybrid press conference on 12 April, the DG apparently held two “green room” meetings on 11 April in which countries spoke about their respective expectations for MC12, said people, who preferred not to be quoted.

In the first “green room” meeting convened by the DG on 11 April, in which the trade envoys of select countries participated, the topic of discussion apparently centered around the possible deliverables for MC12.

The countries which took part in the meeting included the United States, the European Union, China, India, Australia, and Japan among others, said people, preferring not to be quoted.

The participants seemed eager to have MC12 take place despite the worsening Russia-Ukraine war, but not clear whether it would be a result-oriented meeting or a mere stocktaking meeting in case Russia is prevented from attending the meeting, said people who asked not to be quoted.

In 2011, MC8 in Geneva was held as a stocktaking meeting with only a chair’s statement without any deliverables, said people, who asked not to be quoted.

During the “green room” meeting, the US is understood to have said that it doesn’t want any outcome in agriculture but suggested that Washington may prefer a result on the WTO’s response to the pandemic.

The US stance seems pretty unclear whether the outcomes should be limited to the WTO response to the pandemic, fisheries subsidies, and a roadmap on proposed WTO reforms that can be decided at MC13, which could be held sometime in 2024, said people familiar with the development.

The EU seems somewhat “clear-eyed” about its demands on the WTO’s response to the pandemic, including a robust package of trade measures as proposed by the former facilitator Ambassador David Walker of New Zealand, fisheries subsidies, launching discussions on the proposed WTO reforms, and on trade and environment, said people, who preferred not to be quoted.

India apparently said that the permanent solution on public stockholding (PSH) programs for food security in developing countries ought to be concluded.

At the “green room” meeting, India argued that it would be difficult for New Delhi to agree to any outcome such as on fisheries subsidies or on other issues at MC12 without an outcome on the permanent solution for PSH programs, said people familiar with the proceedings.

China is understood to have said that MC12 must deliver some outcomes, including the permanent solution for PSH programs, according to people familiar with the meeting.

Australia, which is apparently seeking a clear roadmap on agriculture, seemed to be opposed to the permanent solution on PSH programs.

Australia apparently conveyed its disappointment with the Indian position at a Cairns Group meeting held on 12 April, according to people familiar with the meeting.

The “green room” meetings seemed to have revealed the fault-lines on almost all the deliverables such as on the mandated issues including the permanent solution for PSH programs, a proposed agreement on fisheries subsidies, and a work program on WTO reforms, said people, who asked not to be quoted.

Perhaps, it is against this backdrop that the DG said that she doesn’t know what is to be expected at MC12 during her press conference on 12 April.

The DG said MC12 will take place in a “business-like”, streamlined meeting, without specifying what would be the concrete outcome of such a meeting.

SECOND “GREEN ROOM” MEETING

In the second “green room” meeting which took place after the meeting with select countries on 11 April, the DG sought to know from the coordinators of the regional groups at the WTO about their expectations for MC12.

The coordinators of the African Group, GRULAC (Group of Latin American and Caribbean countries), the Asian Group, and ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) among others took part in the meeting.

Apparently, the coordinators pressed for convening MC12 in an open and inclusive manner with the participation of all countries in the decision-making process.

While the African Group demanded strong outcomes in agriculture, including the permanent solution for PSH programs, the GRULAC countries and the ASEAN countries pressed for convening the meeting as well as for ensuring clear outcomes, said people who asked not to be quoted.

While the meeting with the coordinators of the regional groups seemed more positive, the one with the major members seemed pretty negative without any clarity on what could be achieved at MC12, said people familiar with these two meetings.

DG’S REMARKS

At the press conference on 12 April, the usually upbeat DG said that she doesn’t know which deliverables can be concluded at MC12, suggesting that the prospects remain uncertain.

As reported in SUNS #9555 dated 13 April 2022, the persisting tensions as well as the damage caused to global trade seem to have cast dark clouds on what the WTO can accomplish at MC12, said people, who asked not to be quoted.

“No doubt, war has increased the tensions,” the DG said, adding that it is “highly uncertain. I cannot promise on what we can achieve at MC12, but we will continue to work.”

The DG presented a rather sombre picture on the rapidly unfolding developments in the face of the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine, the setbacks suffered by globalization, and the re-shoring and on-shoring of key sectors, including fresh waves of industrialization.

WTO economists acknowledged that there is little hard data to project the economic impact of the conflict.

In a nutshell, the suspense over what kind of MC12 – whether a stocktaking meeting or whether there will be any deliverables – continues without any resolution.