Cause and effect

Thailand has endured a perfect storm of factors, both natural and man-made, that have starkly exposed the consequences of poor planning and management.

Bundit Kertbundit

WHEN all is said and done, the 2011 flood will certainly rank among the worst in modern Thai history.

The numbers are monumental. One-third of the country under water. Nearly 10 million people affected. Up to 1 million now unemployed, with economic losses estimated as high as 500 billion baht, or 5% of gross domestic product.

Why? Yes, there is no question that rainfall this year has been heavy, at 20-30% over seasonal averages. But this is a man-made disaster as much as it is a natural one, experts told the Bangkok Post.

The underlying factors of the crisis are many and complex.

Adis Israngkura, dean of development economics at the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), says poor drainage management and deforestation are key factors.

'Hong Kong and Singapore face immense levels of rainfall each year, but there are no floods in those countries,' he said.

'It's convenient for people to point fingers at nature. But even though rainfall this year has been heavy, it's actually manageable and shouldn't cause severe flooding. But here, the water levels have risen two- or three-fold.'

Deforestation, Adis said, has had a grievous effect on the ability of the country to absorb rainfall. As forests have given way to crop and animal farms, vulnerability to flooding has increased.

Mismanagement is another factor. Adis notes that waterways from northern Thailand converge at Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya, in turn flowing into the Chao Phraya River and ultimately to the Gulf of Thailand.

Instead, more paths are needed to improve the efficiency of water drainage, he said.

Sasin Chalermlarp, secretary-general of the Seub Nakasathien Foundation, notes that Rangsit Canal should be used as a model in a rethink of water management strategy.

Rather than just storing water, the canal is used to gradually and systematically drain excess runoff into rivers. This prevents the canal from accumulating too much water if rainfall increases unpredictably, Sasin said.

Poor town planning

Thaweewong Sriburi, managing director of Chula Unisearch at Chulalongkorn University, argues that poor town planning is another contributing factor to the floods.

The past several decades have produced a buildup of infrastructure - roads, houses and industrial estates - that either impede natural waterways or take up space in low-level catchment areas that in the past helped mitigate flooding.

The seven industrial estates flooded in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani, for instance, all are based in low-lying land that is a major flood basin running into the Chao Phraya delta.

'Years ago, I recommended zoning these areas to be exclusively reserved for agriculture and irrigation purposes. But I was laughed at,' said Thaweewong.

'State officials said that times had changed, and we had to allow factories there, even though they knew that doing so would limit the area available for reservoirs.'

The industrial estates built embankments and installed water pumps, which in hindsight were inadequate to cope with the 12 billion cubic metres now spread across the central plains.

Sasin of the Seub Nakasathien Foundation agreed that town planning strategies must change. Low-lying areas such as Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani are simply unsuitable for industrial estates, he said.

But given the vast industrial development already in the area - Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani represent key clusters for the automotive, electronics and electrical goods sectors - the only option now is to invest significantly in new infrastructure to guard against floods.

Sasin suggested that roads impeding natural waterways be raised to facilitate water drainage.

Housing in the area must also be redesigned with flooding in mind, either by raising the level of living quarters or by digging canals and floodways to channel waterflows.

Adis said water management needed to be examined from a national level, rather than on a provincial basis.

'I oppose having each province erect its own dykes,' he said. 'As one province builds flood walls, it only shifts the burden to other areas.'

Instead, Adis suggested that a new 'Ministry of Water' be created to oversee construction of flood management systems.

'Water dykes currently are under the control of each province. Those provinces with political weight have greater power at the expense of others,' he said.

Suphan Buri, for instance, the stronghold of former prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa, helps manage water flow away from the Chao Phraya River to the Tha Chin River to the west.

Adis said the inefficient drainage of flood water through the Tha Chin River was clearly politically motivated, putting greater stress on provinces to the south and the Chao Phraya River.

Dam mismanagement

Of course, this year's crisis also stemmed from mismanagement of northern dams, which were reporting water levels near full capacity before seasonal rains began in July and August.

Thailand's dams have three core functions - to mitigate flooding, store water for farm irrigation during droughts, and to generate electricity. Irrigation is the role of the Royal Irrigation Department, while power generation is controlled by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT).

Smith Dharmasarojana, former director-general of the Thai Meteorological Department and currently the chairman of the National Disaster Warning Council Foundation, said the upper dams were simply mismanaged.

'The Irrigation Department and EGAT reserved too much water when the rains arrived, which were prolonged and heavy. It was simply irrational,' he said.

'These two agencies did not know the right amount of water that should be stored, how much was too much and when they should drain the water. Even now, with the country inundated with flooding, water continues to be discharged from the Bhumibol, Sirikit and Pasak Jolasid dams. Why?'

Smith insisted the discharges are unnecessary, as each dam is sufficiently overengineered against cracks even when running a surplus.

'The water should be allowed to overflow from these dams naturally. When the flood recedes, we must figure out why the responsible state agencies did what they did,' he said.

Another key lesson learned has been communications. The government's Flood Relief Operations Centre (FROC) and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) have both come under fire for their inaccurate, inconsistent and at times contradictory messages sent out to the public.

Smith said local governments need to be more self-reliant on getting key information, and should not rely on the national government to act.

More public awareness programmes are needed to educate residents in flood-prone areas about how to protect themselves and their property. It should be incorporated into the official teaching curriculum.

And technology and lessons from the past need to be put to better use. After the 1983 flood, reams of studies were written about flood protection, leading to the development of numerous projects initiated by His Majesty the King. This includes telemetry systems to monitor water levels and the direction and speed of floods.

'[The technology] represents a massive investment that has never been fully exploited,' said Thaweewong from Chulalongkorn University.

'Not only are we not using it, even worse, we are now relying on our naked eyes to determine if the dams are going to crack. Few people realise that Thailand has everything a country needs to forestall floods.' 

This article was first published in the Bangkok Post on 31 October 2011. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved. www.bangkokpost.com.

*Third World Resurgence No. 255/256, November/December 2011, pp 2-3