|
||
|
TWN
Info Service on Climate Change (Mar22/05) Climate:
New finance goal should be between $1-2 trillion, says South Africa Penang, 28 Mar (Meena Raman) -- The new climate finance goal should be in the range of USD 1 to 2 trillion, said Zaheer Fakir from South Africa, at the first technical expert dialogue under the Paris Agreement's "ad hoc work programme on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance", which was held from 24 to 25 March, at Cape Town, South Africa. At a session on "The needs and priorities of developing countries," Fakir, who is also climate finance coordinator of the Group of 77/China, drew attention to the UNFCCC's Standing Committee on Finance's "first report on the determination of the needs of developing countries related to the implementation of the Convention and the Paris Agreement" (referred to as the Needs Determination Report - NDR). Fakir said looking at all the various national reports (including the national communications, nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans, biennial update reports etc.) that were submitted by developing countries, on average, only 30% of the needs identified were costed. Of the needs which were costed, the figures (in terms of the financial resources needed) range from USD 5 trillion to USD 11 trillion. He added that whatever (finance) goal is set, it will not cover all of the needed costs of the developing countries. Fakir referred to the use of leveraging ratios generally of about 1:4 internationally, and that if the USD 5 trillion (which is the bottom range of the 30% needs costed from the NDR) is to be generated, then the global goal would need to be about USD 1 trillion; and if the upper range of USD 11 trillion is to be effected, then the goal would have to be about USD 2.2 trillion. Therefore, said Fakir, taking into account the needs of developing countries, a decision on a new collective quantified goal of at least USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion is "not political". [Parties at the UNFCCC's COP 21 in 2015, decided that, prior to 2025, the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) shall set a NCQG from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries. In Glasgow in 2021, Parties agreed to establish the ad hoc work programme on the NCQG from 2022 to 2024, to be facilitated by co-chairs, one from a developed country and one from a developing country, for the duration of one year. The CMA also decided to conduct four technical expert dialogues per year]. Federica Fricano (Italy) and Kishan Kumarsingh (Trinidad and Tobago) have been appointed as co-chairs of the ad hoc work programme on the NCQG and convened the first technical expert dialogue. At the panel discussion which followed the presentation by Fakir on the needs of developing countries, a rich discussion followed, which was moderated by Ali Waqas Malik of Pakistan. Waqas also referred to the NDR as being a most comprehensive report and said that it analysed the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of 153 developing countries which identified 4,274 needs but only costed 41% of those needs, which amount to over USD 5 trillion in climate finance needed just to implement the NDCs alone (involving a time-frame of 2021 to 2030). Waqas further said that developing countries also expressed their adaptation needs which were expressed in more qualitative terms (rather than in quantitative terms). Diann Black-Layne from Antigua and Barbuda, who was on the panel, remarked that there was "political inertia" in the UNFCCC process, saying that until recently, the term "fossil fuels" could not be mentioned or talked about. She also said that "climate change is a market failure" and that "in the energy space, the consumer has no choice", with the fossil fuel industry having a monopoly on the global energy system and asked why would the industry transition. Black-Layne also added that the most vulnerable had least access to renewable energy and that women in particular are energy vulnerable, given their dependence on the use of electrical appliances for managing their housework in order to go to work. She stressed further that all development pathways will not make an impact unless one looks at fossil fuels and address the mitigation needs in this regard. David Kaluba from Zambia highlighted that developing countries in Africa are struggling with energy prices and the unpredictability of financial support. He also stressed the importance of adaptation for Africa, explaining that for people to survive and put food on the table, agriculture is important. Kaluba said that a number of needs have not been costed, adding that there is need to have predictability in the availability of financial resources, in order to prepare national budgets. He also highlighted the problem of climate induced debts, as countries have to borrow to deal with climate induced impacts, adding further that countries cannot be waiting for twenty over months before a project is approved! The same goes for readiness support for developing countries which cannot take five years to be disbursed. Kaluba stressed the importance of simplified support, and said that the world needs to respond to saving lives from climate change with the same speed as it responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, and called for the NCQG. Rodolfo Bustamante Beltran from Chile spoke for the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean, and drew attention to their needs and priorities which includes adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage.He said that for the NCQG to be adequate, there is need for USD 2 trillion by 2030, USD 2.5 trillion by 2040 and USD 3 trillion by 2050, adding that public finance needs to be strategically provided to deliver much larger finance with a rapid pace. Georg Borsting from Norway said that the approach to setting a new goal is different from the USD 100 billion (per year by 2020) which was a political goal to salvage the 2009 deal (in Copenhagen). Work on the NCQG would have to rely on information from elsewhere, he said, adding that the NDR is one source, which has important information, as well as in getting other sources. He also said there are challenges in assessing adaptation needs. Madeleine Diouf Sarr from Senegal, who is the Chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group, stressed the importance of having climate resilient communities and economy, and that for many, revenue from natural resources are important. She outlined various initiatives working with universities to better assess the vulnerabilities of LDCs, building adaptation resilience among communities, work around renewable energy etc. She called for a change in approach on finance to accessibility and predictability for real action at national and local levels to make climate resilience a reality. Diouf said that the adaptation gap is still wide and that for LDCs alone, they need USD 94 billion per year from 2020 to implement their NDCs. She said further that only 10% of climate finance is reaching LDCs, adding that to better address the long-term impacts of climate change, there is need to revise the short-term approach of climate finance and for defining climate finance needs to respond to the urgency of the most vulnerable. In another panel discussion, Barney Dickson from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) focused on adaptation finance. He referred to the 2016 Adaptation Gap report which estimates the finance needed annually by developing countries at USD 140 to 300 billion by 2030 and USD 280 billion to 500 billion by 2050. The ranges are due to the 2 to 4-degree C temperature scenarios. Dickson pointed out that since the Adaptation Gap report, UNEP has not attempted at arriving at a new global estimate, but in the 2021 report, there are new estimates from developing countries themselves from their national adaptation plans and the NDCs, and these estimates are higher than earlier ones, with costs now at the upper end of the 2016 figures. He pointed out that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 6th Assessment Report provides estimates of figures going up to USD 400 billion in annual costs by 2030 to USD 1 trillion by 2050. Following the two-day dialogue, co-chair Kumarsingh said that the next steps will include a reflections note to be issued by the co-chairs under their own authority, to capture the "rich discussions" and also an information note on the next technical expert dialogue, and that they may also consult with various constituencies for more clarity. +
|
||
